Friday, November 03, 2006

TX-22: A completely useless poll

Last we heard, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs was facing a long, uphill fight in her write-in campaign against Nick Lampson for Tom DeLay's old seat, with Bob Smither showing appeal as an alternative.

Surprisingly enough, the write-in campaign now seems to be doing better than expected. Pollster shows Dr. Sekula-Gibbs only down eight points, 36% to 28%, with Smither apparently not showing.

Well, that's all well and good, but it's completely useless as a poll. A quick look further down the page, the percentages of Democrats and Republicans in the 504 likely voters is shown. Guess what: the distribution is Democrat 36%, Republican 28%. That is not even close to the actual distribution in TX-22, according to Wikipedia. (Determining whether Wikipedia is accurate today or not is left as an exercise to the reader.) Perhaps the pundits who have already called this district (that would mean you, Robert Novak) might want to rethink things.

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